أثر الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي في الإنفاق الاستهلاكي الخاص في العراق للمدة ( 1971-2023 )

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of real GDP on private consumption expenditure in Iraq over the period 1971–2023, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen cointegration test, and Granger causality analysis. Unit root tests (ADF and Phillips-Perron) confirm that both variables are stationary at level I(0). The bounds F-statistic (43.797) strongly rejects the null of no long-run relationship, yielding a long-run elasticity of 0.926, consistent with Keynesian and permanent income theories. However, Granger causality tests reveal no direct causality from GDP to consumption, reflecting Iraq's rentier economy structure where oil-financed government expenditure mediates income-to-consumption transmission. Diagnostic tests confirm structural stability, with ARCH effects attributed to oil price shocks. The study provides an analytical framework for understanding private consumption dynamics in resource-dependent economies and informing fiscal and social policy in Iraq.

Keywords: Private consumption, real GDP, ARDL model, Granger causality, cointegration, oil rentierism.