نمذجة قياسية للتنبؤ بالطلب السياحي الدولي في محافظة كربلاء باستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للفترة (2010-2030)
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Abstract
This study forecasts international tourism demand in Karbala Governorate for the 2026–2030 period, employing the Box-Jenkins methodology for time-series modeling based on 2010–2025 data. The findings demonstrate the ARIMA model's superior efficiency in managing structural breaks from previous security and health crises through statistical flexibility. The results reveal a sustainable upward trajectory, highlighting the tourism sector's resilience and capacity for growth despite historical challenges, thereby offering decision-makers a robust econometric tool for anticipating future demand pressures
Keywords:Econometric Modeling, Time Series Forecasting, International Tourism Demand, Box-Jenkins Models
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